Post Tournament Wrap

Fist of all congrats to Pags, an excellent job by him to nab some bargains late that propelled him to a fairly easy win.  Pags total ties Dustin (2021) for the second highest WINNING total in the last 5 years.  I say, "winning", because (you won't believe this) - guess who has the second highest total of all in that time but still didn't win?  Yep, the second place king himself, yours truly had 392 last year when Mana put up his monster 461.  Would have won going away any other year.  Speaking of second place.....

Well, at the end of last year on this page I told you that I had "cemented myself in the minds of the participants here as the finest loser you ever met with my 4 straight second place finishes".  Now that I have my fifth I have to believe I am truly a hall of fame loser.  The Babe Ruth of losers if you will.  So for those of you wondering "why let this Philly buffoon into this thing?"  now you know.   

So once again here is my post tournament wrap up.  

Pick #1 -El Bagre    5-1  Odds  6th place

Top Pick -  (Broome - Auburn) 4th best scorer

Worst Pick -  (Robinson - Kentucky) Last

El Bagre was hampered by selecting an injured player from Kentucky.  He was his last pick but having the worst pick in the draft (edged out Dustin's Clemson guy 0-1) didn't help his cause.  Catfish was the earliest ever 12-16 adopter going third round.  As a 12-16, his pick looks great having played two games and getting points in both but his 3rd round pick was only the 7th best 3rd pick out of 10 picks points wise and more than half the 4th - 7th round picks outscored his guy.  As anyone who has enjoyed Catfish (the food) before knows, Catfish and Mayo (Zeke of Kansas) is a bad combination and it was here too with KU being one and done.  Better picks there and El Bagre would have made a run at it but I am sure our bottom dwelling friend will make another run next year when he checks the injury list closely.  

Pick # 2 - Scooter   3-1 Odds   10th Place

The oddsmaker was a bit off here.  On the plus side Scooter's total for a last place finish was nowhere near the record (which Scooter holds from 2021 at 138).  With his undoing being his beloved Johnnies I will not throw salt in that wound and will add that they had me totally fooled but perhaps that was my Pitino loyalty.  I'd like to say better luck next year Scooter, I'd love to see SJU's return to glory but not while Bryce "Oh....my arm.....my arm!" Hopkins is there.  When he goes to Rhode Island the Rhody faithful will make Philly look like amateurs at the art of booing.  And a bit of advice from the second place king (because who doesn't want to be just like the best loser?), stop taking 12-16 guys early.  then again, if I knew what the hell I was doing I wouldn't have all these second places so ignore that last comment.

Best Pick - Saunders BYU   16th ranked scorer

Worst Pick - Johnson - Akron  62nd of 70 (accurately predicted as his worst pick)

Pick #3 - JT    9-2 Odds  Tied for 2nd

Russell Wilson was an accurate tag for our hero this year as he did indeed revert to form.  LJ Cryer was a solid pick at the right time.  With some better mid to late round picks The Strong Islander will be right back in the mix next year.  Same advice as Scooter, 12-16 picks are not for the 5th round.  

Best Pick - LJ Cryer - Houston, 2nd leading scorer

Worst Pick - Giffa - High Point, 65th of 70

Pick #4 -Pags  7-2 Odds  1st Place

The Joe Burrow of the pool put it together and built the right team around him.   Everyone actually made good early picks but Pags grabbed the best late rounder in Darrion Williams of Texas Tech in the 5th round (ended up fifth overall in scoring, great pick) and also his 2nd  & 3rd rounders put up big numbers for him before bowing out in the round of 32.  

Best Pick - Clayton Florida, Top Scorer 

Worst pick - Pags really didn't have a "bad" pick but if I have to name one it is Coles of Grand Canyon 68th of 70 was his last pick (Who he DID NOT take early, take note)

Pick #5 El Gato    99-1    5th Place

The Futbol coach hung around in this one until the Final 4.  Not a bad showing.  He was aggressive taking 3 players from 11-16s.  Taking his 12-16 in the 4th round was pure insanity and he was rewarded with a 7 point showing and done, which really hurt the Rocky Mountain Lion and like the other early adopters he shows/proves why I detest the early 12-16 picks.  A better fourth round pick puts him in contention and most likely minimum preventing me from my historic 5th consecutive 2 finish, which I know he would have loved to spoil (and who can blame him?, I'd be no different!).  His Ole Miss pick, Pedulla ("oblongata" for you Waterboy fans), was a great pick getting him 20 or more every game.  

Best Pick - Flagg - Duke; 3rd leading scorer

Worst Pick - Tait Jones UCSD; 67th of 70

Pick #6 El Queso    Even Money for Second Odds    2nd Place (tied)

I am without a shadow of a doubt, the best loser you have ever seen.  

Best Pick - Chaz Lanier TENN ; 6th leading scorer 

Worst Pick - Zuby SJU; 42nd of 70

Pick #7 Farco   5-1 Odds  7th Place  

Another early adopter gets torched.  Farco took a guy from Lipscomb in the 4th round.  When you have never even heard of the school they shouldn't be considered until the 7th round.  There were 35 players taken after Farco's Lipscomb guy.  22 (two thirds) were better picks and many by a wide margin.  Other than that Farco actually made very solid picks.  His Auburn guy underperformed scoring mid single digits in 3 of his 5 games but he was one of their top guys.  His other picks were solid.  Next year Farco, don't succumb to the "gotta get my 12-16 guy early" stuff.  Reverse Nike.  Just don't do it.

Best Pick - SEars Alabama; 8th leading scorer

Worst Pick - Grill Mizou; 61 of 70

Pick # 8 - Mana   7-2   4th Place

Matt Stafford was about right for Mana.  Struck fear in the hearts of the contenders right until the end just ran out of gas just like the NFC divisional playoff.  Who beat them again?....Sorry.  Anyway, Mana needed a longer run from Lerch Kalkbrenner or Haggerty but he had an outstanding top 3 rounds.  Picking 8 is a tough spot.  Nice job.

Best Pick - Martin FLA; 7th leading scorer

Worst Pick - Taelon LIBERTY; 66th of 70 (but Kudos for picking him in the 7th round and not the 3rd)

Pick #9  Dustin   4-1   8th Place

Early adoption of 12-16 again.  This one didn't work either.  5th rounder from UCSD but in all fairness, Dustin got 25 from his guy so I really can't point to that as his undoing.  Dustin's undoing was Hunter D of Kansas, who seems to be many schools undoing also in his career.  Would have been nice to get more than 1 out of his Clemson pick also but at the time he picked him it seemed like a good pick.  

Best Pick - Kneuppel DUKE; 12th overall scorer

Worst Pick - Schiefflin CLEMSON; 69th of 70

Pick #10  TMac  4-1   9th Place

Very uncharacteristic lower tier finish for Tmac.  Tmac's first two were solid producers but after that he didn't get enough.  Combo of low scores and out early lands him here.   Unfortunately his big scorers were the ones out early and his lesser scorers had the longevity.  Bad mix but more unlucky in this case than pick issues.  I'm sure Tmac will be back next year.  

Best Pick - Sharp HOU; 10th leading scorer

Worst Pick - Garcia MCNeese 60 of 70. (Tmac did get two games from his 12-16 despite picking him in the proper place so this pick wasn't all that bad actually)

Now for some idiotic facts and analysis/commentary:

Early Adoption of 12-16, Genius or Way too risky?

As you could tell from above my pet peeve this year was early 12-16 picks.  Let's look at how they did relative to those who picked them 7th round.  

Catfish picked the top 12-16 scorer in round 3.  He got 35 points.  The third round pick average was 44.4.  

Farco and Cat took their 12-16 in round 4.  Farco got 22 and Cat got 7.  4th round average was 29.8.  Farco's guy was 7th of 10  4th rounder picks and Cat's was 10 of 10.

Dustin, JT and Scooter took their 12-16 in Round 5.  Dustin got 25, JT 8 and Scooter got 13.  Round 5 average was 34.8.   Dustin's pick was 6th of 10, JT was 10 of 10 and Scooter was 9 of 10.

Nobody took a 12-16 in Round 6

Queso, Tmac, Mana, and Pags (The Winner) took 12-16s in the last round.  They got 23, 15, 8 and 4 respectively.   Round 7 average was 18.7.  Queso's pick was 4th of 10, Tmac 6th of 10, Mana 7th of 10 and Pags 8th of 10.

So only ONE 12-16 pick outperformed their round average (Me, with the Greek Freak from Yale in Round 7).   My contention is that points are much more plentiful in the earlier rounds making the earlier picks significantly more valuable.  Here are the Round averages by Round:

Round 1 - 86.1

Round 2 - 53.1

Round 3 - 44.4

Round 4 - 29.8 (dragged down heavily by Cat's 12-16 pick)

Round 5 - 34.8 (dragged down by two 12-16 picks who totaled 21 combined)

Round 6 - 38.5 (no 12-16 picks)

Round 7 - 18.7 (most 12-16 picks in one round at 4 but the bottom two were NOT 12-16 picks)

As you can see there is a definite trend at work of the more 12-16 picks selected the lower the average, which explains why the 6th round was the highest scoring of rounds 4-7 (and not far behind round 3).

Conclusion.  Early Adoption is a team killer.  

Thanks again for letting an idiot keep score and offer commentary.  I look forward to my 6th straight second place finish in the El Gato Invitational 2026.  Have a great summer lads.